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Extinction

Forum for discussing fisheries conservation and other environmental issues related to fish, wildlife, watersheds, and aquatic ecosystems.

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Graeme H
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Extinction

#1

Post by Graeme H »

I just had to make a post in support of James' front page on the topic.

Well said James. Our population is a huge problem that we (as a species) will not recognise until it's too late. Some of us think it's already too late. I'm one of those people.

As you noted, our population has doubled in your life time. I was born in the mid sixties. It's doubled in my life time too. Basically, it's doubling every 50 years or so. That's very common for a population that has no constraints on its growth. Unlimited resources almost invariably results in exponential growth of population for that species.

As this lecturer notes, it's only the second last generation that realises it's getting a bit crowded. Here's what exponential growth looks like as a graph:

Image

And here's our population (it's an old graph, but that doesn't matter with exponential growth) :

Image

Typically, studies would expect a population to follow this path as it consumes it's resources:

Image

But those studies don't usually include the development of conditions that are unfavourable to that species. It's normally just running out of the things that let them grow that kills them off. I think 4˚ or 5˚ C of climate change will most definitely not be favourable for our farming zones. Even at the current value of 410ppm CO2, that's what we face. (280ppm has been great for 5000 years of civilisation.)

There is a very real possibility that our grain production will collapse catastrophically before long, and without enough grain to feed 9 billion people (it's currently 7.6) it won't matter what the sea level is doing.

Does this shape look familiar? It should - more people equals more CO2. There is no deviation from exponential growth in CO2. It's currently growing at 3ppm per year. In 20 years, we can expect to see 490ppm CO2.
Image

When I was a teenager, I used to think I'd probably die in a nuclear blast. As a young adult I thought maybe in a car crash (someone else at fault, of course). 15 years ago, retirement looked good. Now I don't think my retirement in 15 years will be so happy.

Pretty grim, eh? :???:

Have a good weekend James. I will be.

Cheers,
Graeme
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Paul Arden
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Extinction

#2

Post by Paul Arden »

I think it's been pretty obvious for a long time that we are heading towards catastrophe. Apparently we are now 7.6 billion. It's staggering that in less than 50 years we have more than doubled our human population. I've never understood the desire to have babies!

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Lasse Karlsson
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#3

Post by Lasse Karlsson »

Have you asked your mom Paul?

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Paul Arden
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#4

Post by Paul Arden »

Yes she advised that I don't have any. Perfect.
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Graeme H
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Extinction

#5

Post by Graeme H »

Paul Arden wrote:Yes she advised that I don't have any. Perfect.
:D :D :D
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Lasse Karlsson
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#6

Post by Lasse Karlsson »

Paul Arden wrote:Yes she advised that I don't have any. Perfect.
Yeah, duh :D :D :p
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Geenomad
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Extinction

#7

Post by Geenomad »

Graeme H wrote:I Some of us think it's already too late. I'm one of those people.

And I am another, albeit from a slightly different perspective. Our species has had ample warning and plenty of time to put the brakes on anthropomorphic climate change. Kyoto was nearly 30 years ago and still we are footling about in denial, intransigence, selfishness and psychopathically incompetent populism.

A quick historical whip round on previous civilisations and the circumstances of their demise does not inspire confidence. The species seems hard wired to organise on an ever increasing scale until that scale can no longer be sustained; environmentally or otherwise. How hard the empire falls varies. This time around we are organised on a global scale so a collapse will not be pretty. Extinction? May be, but there are plenty of dystopian options for survival none of us would want to be a part of.

Think I decided about 10 years ago that the time for hope had expired.

The universe is relative. Life is uncertain,

Cheers
Mark
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Paul Arden
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#8

Post by Paul Arden »

They were already talking about overcrowding in 1970 when the global population was half what it is now. To go from 3.5 billion to 7.5 billion in less than 50 years is mind blowing. All of these people eat and make enormous waste that takes thousands of years to decompose. We’re also very good at making wars. I’ve always said I’d love to come back, but what the hell would we be coming back to? Now if I can just go back to living in the jungle and fly fishing then I’ll be fine. I hope for the future but I think we’ve already fucked that up. Wilderness is now parks. Rivers are now managed fisheries. And both are in major decline. Seas are virtually wiped out in some parts of the world. It’s difficult to see a silver lining. It’s very sad really, and that’s why I wrote that the fishing now is as good as it will ever be. And it’s surely been better.

Cheers, Paul
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James9118
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Extinction

#9

Post by James9118 »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-48169783

Recognition of (imo) the ultimate cause of our problems by the UN :-
One big idea is to steer the world away from the "limited paradigm of economic growth".
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Paul Arden
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#10

Post by Paul Arden »

I don’t see it being fixed. We will pass 2 degrees hotter and no doubt 4 degrees. We will create seas of plastic, use all the world’s oil and destroy all the last remaining wilderness. There will be far more extreme weather, large scale immigration, famine, sea level rises, there will be no ice in the summer months at the North Pole and of course there will be war. Genocide seems to be a regular activity for us.

I don’t think it takes a genius or even a pessimist to see this future. The only things that can prevent it playing out this way, is another major global conflict, a meteor hitting the planet, or a super disease - in other words a massive decline in our population. We certainly appear to be incapable of reversing the current trend. We might have a go at drawing it out, but actually fixing the problem is beyond our capabilities particularly given the fact that there are 200 countries with different agendas and the main culprit denies there is even a problem!

The reemergence of the Far Right in Europe is mostly due to immigration. What will happen when large scale famine causes mass immigration? So yes the future looks bleak. On the other hand we go through these cataclysmic events quite regularly. A new world order is most certainly required because what we currently have isn’t solving the problem.

Species becoming extinct is fairly damned normal on this planet. Why should we be any different? If the human race is to survive long term then it needs to find ways to leave this planet. There are quite a lot of other planets out there, if we could just get to them, then we can fuck them up too :laugh:

Cheers, Paul
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