[Fuck] Lock down days!

[piffilus]

Yeah, I understand that being enclosed must be quite a big difference and must make navigating by stars very hard. Just keep hidden and safe during this strange time mate.

Since you have your little house in Hungary. The Orban government there have now passed a law that they can rule by making decrees when they want, and that is indefinitely! So, dictatorship here we go

[steelehead]

Lockdown sucks, but if it helps stopping the disease I'm ok with that.
At the moment there is one weekly visit to the supermarket, wearing face mask and avoiding eye contact (it feels like that) while walking through an abandoned city. Feels like being in the movie "Omega Man" (or for the younger dudes "I am legend"), except there are hopefully no mutants hiding in the dark.
I managed to go fishing the last days. Germany, or at least my region, has not yet banned "personal sports" as long as you follow some rules - like max 2 persons interacting and keeping a safe distance of around 2m to other people.
Actually the fishing was more hiking in waders, as - thanks to yet sparse vegetation - one could easily reach parts on the river, where only beavers mind their business. Encountered a smallish Baetis hatch around noon without fish interaction, but actually just walked around and took notes about the structure of the river while occasionally casting around. Think I will add regular fishing to my "covid-19 mental sanity"-routine, after being in semi-isolation (wifey and me) for about three weeks and having already tied more flies than the whole last year...

Stay healthy everyone and wash your hands before casting,
Christian

[Boisker]

... like you I’m happy to isolate if it’s gonna keep people alive, but have to say I’m slightly jealous you can still hit the river...
I can work from home pretty easily and it saves me a fair chunk in petrol costs... to be honest if I could still go fishing I would hardly notice the impact... I’m quite happy to only go shopping once a week and have a couple of months with no pub or socialising, a few years ago the lack of pub/socialising would have p!ssed me off.... but can’t say I’m that bothered any more

[Paul Arden]

It’s funny, I’ve also been thinking about the movie Omega Man quite a lot recently completely isolated here. Haven’t seen anyone in weeks. Apart from two orang Asli boats in this time. Internet is terrible. The fishing is pretty slow. But apart from the bees life has been idyllic.

Yep I’ve been watching developments in Hungary. It’s been going on for years. A hell of a lot of racism in that society. They also carry a lot of resentment about Trianon.

Hope all is well.

Cheers, Paul

[Carol]

Sorry to be a downer, but this is important sh!t. On March 26, JAMA published an article regarding the distances droplet and aerosol entails from a cough or sneeze can travel and the persistence/viability of pathogens. It is much farther than the 6 feet social distance that has been espoused. I'll be isolating until a vaccine comes out. Read this and stay safe. The world needs your superlative casting brains. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... le/2763852

[steelehead]

I already knew about that, after having read the chinese bus study https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science ... e-and-stay.
However the human body should be able to handle exposition - at least a short interval, such as when visiting a store. At least if there are not too many aerosol bursts in your face.
Stay healthy, stay antisocial...

[Graeme H]

Carol, there may never be a vaccine for this. Coronaviruses mutate quickly.

That doesn't mean we can't do everything in our power to prevent ourselves getting it in the short term though.

Stay safe,
Graeme

[Paul Arden]

Realistically I think we are just going to have to get on with this. I was reading a report today that hundreds of thousands of children could die of hunger because they have no school meals in the 3rd world which are essential for their survival. We have a massive surge in unemployment all over the world. Millions of people will undoubtedly drop below the poverty line, undoing the last 10 and more years of great change.

I was also reading today that on that US battleship that 60% of the crew who tested positive for COVD-19 had no symptoms. If that applies to the world at large then millions more people are carrying this disease. Let’s say 5 million carriers. No actually let’s say 7 million because it’s easier maths . That’s .1 percent of the global population. And it may be many many more. Two of my sisters and my niece had it - almost certainly - but they weren’t tested and so don’t appear in the numbers. And they’ve since recovered. The cases we are seeing in hospitals and nursing homes are a deadly fraction of this disease. Isolate the vulnerable. Of course. And we are not doing a very good job of that. But What we are doing right now is causing hunger, poverty and who knows what else could follow from collapsed economies. Unrest, war, famine?

I agree that it’s absolutely awful that hundreds of thousands of people will die. And what an incredibly difficult choice it is between older people who have health problems possibly (hopefully) in their twilight years against children in poverty who will die of hunger... well these are difficult decisions.

Is it really possible to eradicate this disease? Probably not, not globally at least. And the moment we open up borders and go back to work the disease will surely spread again. Then what? Lockdown again? Until a vaccine appears? Which could be 18 months?

In the 14th century the Black Death killed an estimated 50 million people worldwide. 60% of Europe’s population perished. Coronavirus is not the Black Death.

I do find the whole thing a bit extraordinary. It’s difficult but it is what it is. I feel very sorry for those who have lost loved ones. And I am very concerned for the older members of my family. But the consequences of a lockdown with no end in sight has major consequences too and will cause many more people to die who never got the virus.

I personally do not fear the disease and I don’t fear death. I expect that I will get the disease but I probably won’t die from it. But I will die, that is an inescapable fact of life! If you love life and live every day to the best of your ability, then there is nothing to fear.

Anyway I’m back in my pad. I was isolated down the lake but one morning while having breakfast in my underpants, a police boat came looking for me. Someone had reported me - undoubtedly an Orang Asli (which is fine). In two weeks I saw two other boats. The police were very nice and actually apologised but told I couldn’t be there (I really need to move to a sailing boat and fish the oceans!). I had a backup plan of parking my boat next to a friend’s island resort and the police told me that was a great idea and that would be acceptable. But it made going fishing impossible.

Well the Internet at Steve’s island was even worse than where I was. We didn’t have any rod sales for about three weeks, but this week I took four confirmed orders, possibly a fifth and two blanks. So I’ve made the decision to move home for the next 10 days (lockdown here might be loosened on the 28th - we shall see) which means I’ll have proper Internet again and I can keep this unexpected ball rolling.

I have a lot of projects for Sexyloops and have another website to build for Belum Fly Fishing. If lockdown is extended again I’ll head back to the Battleship - it’s much nicer looking at the stars, the jungle (saw seven elephants swimming a few evenings ago!) and the weather. It was nice to spend 3 weeks alone doing my own thing. But now I have to work

Going to catch up with the rest of the Board now. Nice to be back here!! Hope that you are all well and enjoying your space.

Cheers, Paul

[Carol]

Carol, there may never be a vaccine for this. Coronaviruses mutate quickly.

Been [half-] listening to lectures while working from home. Been listening to one by UC San Diego professor of biology Justin Meyer, who specializes in infectious disease research.
It's pretty interesting, even though I don't understand everything not being a biologist. Anyway, the good news is that COVID-19 has a lower mutation rate than other corona viruses. That is because it has proteins that assist in the replication process, NSP7 and 8 (huh?), that detect errors during replication and decrease the mutation rate. So good news is it has a lower mutation rate. Bad news is that it's still bad news.

[Carol]

I should add that a lower mutation rate doesn't mean NO mutation. Right now it just happens to be slower. That gives the human race 1/2 a chance to develop some immunity to the virus either by herd immunity or vaccine.