Covid-19’campfire discussion

[Paul Arden]

Hi folks,

How does the Board think about how the world has dealt with – and is dealing with – the pandemic to date?

One of my friends passed his driving test when I was about 16 and I bought him a glass of whisky in a pub. For some reason he was still drinking this whisky when we went for a slash. And after he finished the glass he put it in the porcelain urinal tank above our heads. I said “hey I bought you the glass too!” And so he climbed up to the tank to retrieve the glass - but whoo - the tank came away from the wall and we were both there holding this bloody tank with water spilling everywhere. He said “what to do now?” I said “let it go” and bam! Smashed porcelain and water everywhere.

I suppose, 35 years later, we could still be holding it.

On the other hand, what is totally fascinating, is that China has got it under control. Personally I find that remarkable and you don’t read much about it but their daily cases are less than 20. However what I do think is that Covid is here to stay and the sooner we learn to live with it the less damaging it will be. I have friends who have died – it’s very sad. But I have many more friends who have lost their jobs, their livelihoods and their savings.

I think that the biggest difference between now and say 100 years ago is social media. It gives paranoid people, space to make everyone else feel paranoid too.

So there you go; that’s my opinion To be frank it hasn’t changed in 18 months. No anger. No rancour. Could be totally wrong of course!

Someone suggested to me that if the world went into total lockdown for a month it would all be over. We’ve been in total lockdown for well over 2 months and new cases are 18,000 daily and climbing.

Cheers,
Paul

[Lasse Karlsson]

Are you sure you have been in total lockdown, I mean all of you there? Sounds like some are moving around and maybe testing is up?

I think the world as a whole are dealing poorly with this, some contries have done good, alot have pissed around, and the average person are dumb to say the least. And they are fed up with changing scenarios because half is founded in science and the other half is a political compromise. So when told to isolate they did last year, and this year they say fuck it...

As far as I know, I haven't lost any friends to it, but have a handful with long term effects from it, and I really really don't want those. And I don't know any personally that have lost jobs and/or savings, I know I am priviledged here, so I am not dismissing it, just stating where I am on that scale.

I'm with you with the social media...

Cheers
Lasse

[Paul Arden]

Yep I’m not in total lockdown but the next phase out in this district. Most shops are still shut, schools closed. Take away restaurant only and before 8pm. However the cities are all locked down, stay at home, no outdoor exercise, must be essential shopping no more than 10km from home. Essential factories are still open which is where most cases/ new clusters occur.

I lost friends that I know about in Croatia, Hungary and Indonesia. I have friends who closed their business in first lockdown here. For the very poor there is some small government money to survive (about 100USD/month, which is not enough). However there is no support here for anyone who is not very poor and people have lost their savings. Malaysia is going to struggle. Quite a few hotels have now shut permanently but so too have many small businesses.

I think that the wider picture however, particularly in these middle-income economies, is one of political instability. When the economy is crashing and everyone is continually locked down with no end in sight, and no money, that paints quite a dire picture.

Cheers, Paul

[Paul Arden]

People tend to focus on the short term. That’s why lockdowns are 2 weeks. Sometimes a month. And then extended and extended and extended. If you were to say we’re going to be in and out of lockdowns for 5 or 10 years, or the rest of our lives, this becomes more difficult to handle. Politicians often only look to their next election.

When Didymo first appeared in NZ it appeared in the Upper Mararoa. It spread to the Upper Oreti and the Waiau. These rivers were initially closed. It then started to appear in the north of the SI. Rivers were opened up and we were told to wash our boots. Felt was ultimately banned. At no point was it ever going to be eradicated. Only slowed.

The unknown question I have, is when you slow a virus over a longer period of time does it change more because of the time period, ie overcoming vaccines produced for the original virus? If you vaccinate one part of the world, but not another, can you ever stop the variants overcoming vaccines?

But the bigger problem I see is not the virus, it’s the long term economic impact coupled with people who are losing everything and frustrated by lockdowns. That’s a messy and unstable landscape.

Ultimately I don’t see any option but to let this thing go. And then the question is should we not have done this in the first place? I suspect had the virus appeared first anywhere but China then this would have happened.

I’m just saying this now because in five years time if we are still having this same conversation you can say “Paul was right. Pity he was wrong about the lightning hat otherwise we could tell him.”

Cheers, Paul

[ACW]

On the brightter side of this you have had #2 jabs so should be safe .I think I may well be up for a booster jab sometime in the autumn with my regular flu jab .

[Lasse Karlsson]

Virus tend to mutate with more infections, let them run rampant, and they mutate faster. Thats what we are seeing as the mutations we have atm seem to appear from places of high infection rates. Mostly virus mutate to a lesser infectious variant, but not always. Letting things run free like they did in Italy in the beginning showed how the healthcare system got overrun, and crashed.
I think most downplay it, because the survival rate and amoubt of people who have no sideeffects are high enough through the working healthcare systems that they forget statistics and match. If only 1 out of 100 friends die, and 5 of the rest have severe sideeffects is that ok? Campfires would be fun right ? We're just missing Lars and Sakari, Lasse, Andy, Magnus and Nick can't fish anymore due to joint pains, but the rest of us are fine right?

Got two jabs, and seeing how the variants are causing concern even when vaccination isn't nice, neither is knowing a large population of the world haven't even got access to vaccine....

Cheers
Lasse

[Paul Arden]

I agree Lasse and that’s a very strong argument. That’s the 1-2 year picture. But viruses also mutate over a time period. There is no question that lockdowns extend that time period - that is their purpose; to try to keep the health system intact. But maybe we are turning a 3 year problem into a 10 year problem? Riots are up. Political uncertainly is up. Many people above the poverty line are now below the poverty line. Lockdowns expose many existing problems.

There was news here yesterday that soon internal travel and business restrictions might be lifted for the fully vaccinated to get the economy rolling again. I really hope this happens because I’ve done 4 days work in 17 months. Here there are no hurdles with “vaccine passports”. I’ve got my digital certificate and hopefully we can get things moving again. If you look at the economies that are rolling again and compare them to the economies that are in lockdown the main difference is that they have already been swept through by Covid.

Cheers, Paul

[Lasse Karlsson]

Wait what? You actually work I have to lie down now for a while......






Ok, funnies aside, I agree, though I am not sure we are making a 3 year problem into a 10 year one.
Got a corona password, digitally, but getting it to be compatable all over is going to take some time, borders and politics have a strong tendencie to put hurdles in the way.


Oh, and I haven't been of work at all, not an essential worker, just a craftsman, and we are just cannon fooder, we had lock down of the country, and restrictions for shopping essentiel things, yet 500 craftmen from different contries had to share like 10 toilets and eating facilites and this in one of the contries that haven't done half bad so far... Some economies haven't been hurt at all!

These lockdowns do indeed show where there is some hefty inequalities in society and existing problems have been highlighted, but I doubt something will be done with it any time soon...

Cheers
Lasse

[Paul Arden]

It’s work but not as we know it I’ve been doing about 40-50 days guiding/year and with the Battleship the aim was 100 days. But pretty much everything is international. And of course our borders are completely shut to travellers/holiday makers. I don’t know if that will change next year but I certainly hope so!! A lot of hotels have gone out of business. The resort I place guests with here has been shut since March last year. 115 staff down to 15. If it wasn’t for rods I’d be in a lot of trouble. Ashly has no work currently since she works in hotels.

You know it’s not the end of the world. So long as I can go fishing I will survive! It’s not about me. It’s the bigger picture that is the problem. I was reading an article that this could be the end of the middle classes in Indonesia and Malaysia and how the opinion was that this class gives stability to politics. Lots of Malaysia is in hard lockdown yet again. Has been for over two months. People are just expected to stay at home and spend the last of their savings to survive. At some point that lid will blow. 1 in 30 people have had the virus here. Vaccination drive is good now, slow to begin with. But… what happens when the vaccines stop working? There is already some question about Sinovac and the Delta variant but it seems good, less efficient but it still works.

So is losing a fast fight better than losing a slow fight is what I wonder about.

Cheers, Paul

[James9118]

But… what happens when the vaccines stop working? There is already some question about Sinovac and the Delta variant but it seems good, less efficient but it still works.

Tracy and I are both double jabbed and have been for some time along with our friends here in Wales. In the last couple of weeks our friends caught Covid and both were pretty ill with it, in fact one of them still can't taste or smell anything. From their description of their symptoms it seemed very similar to what people were reporting before the vaccines were developed.

My concern is that we're already being vaccinated against an old variant and not what is currently in circulation. Everyone knows that the flu vaccine has to be updated every year as the prevailing variants are discovered. I suspect this push to get the world vaccinated has already missed the boat - there needs to be a more dynamic way of tackling the current version.

James